2025 Outlook for Global Trade Opportunities and Challenges

The latest Export Session, organised by Business Canterbury, brought together representatives from Canterbury's vibrant export community, including industry leaders, government agencies, and service providers. The focus was on discussing the region's export priorities and pathways for growth. These collaborative sessions provide an important platform for knowledge sharing, networking, and strategy development, ensuring that Canterbury continues to be a key contributor to New Zealand's export performance.

Navigating Supply Chain Challenges

A major theme of the session was the continued challenges within the global supply chain. While Canterbury businesses have shown incredible resilience amidst recent disruptions, attendees highlighted the importance of further innovation and investment in infrastructure to remain competitive. Partnerships with key stakeholders, such as Lyttelton Port Company and major logistics providers, were identified as critical to ensuring efficient access to global markets.

According to the OECD's 2024 Economic Outlook, New Zealand’s economic growth is expected to improve to 1.4% in 2025, following a weaker expansion of 0.6% in 2024. This growth, while modest, reflects a stabilisation of global supply chain pressures and a gradual recovery in export markets. However, challenges such as rising unemployment and constrained household spending may temper broader economic momentum. For Canterbury exporters, this highlights the importance of adaptability and long-term strategic planning.

Workforce Development and Talent Retention

The session also addressed workforce challenges, a topic of growing concern for Canterbury businesses. Skills shortages remain a significant barrier, particularly in high-demand sectors such as advanced manufacturing, agritech, and technology. Attendees explored solutions, including closer partnerships with educational institutions like the University of Canterbury and Ara Institute of Canterbury, as well as promoting the region as an attractive destination for skilled migrants.

Nationally, unemployment is projected to rise slightly in 2025, emphasising the urgency of addressing workforce gaps to sustain economic growth. Participants at the session agreed on the need to focus on creating pathways to engage younger generations, ensuring they see long-term value in building their careers in Canterbury.

Sustainability as a Growth Opportunity

As global markets increasingly prioritise sustainability, Canterbury businesses are recognising the need to integrate environmentally responsible practices. From reducing carbon emissions in agriculture to adopting renewable energy in manufacturing, the session underscored Canterbury’s potential to lead New Zealand’s sustainability efforts.

According to the OECD report, sustainability is now a key driver of global trade patterns, with regions like Europe and North America demanding stringent compliance with environmental standards. While this presents significant opportunities, such as access to premium markets, the associated costs are a challenge, particularly for smaller businesses. Business Canterbury remains committed to providing members with the resources and workshops needed to meet these standards.

Enabling Innovation Across Industries

A strong focus on innovation was identified as critical to Canterbury’s economic growth. Discussions at the session highlighted opportunities in sectors like advanced manufacturing, agritech, and space technologies, where Canterbury businesses are already leading the way. Participants emphasised the role of research and development (R&D) in driving innovation, alongside the need for better access to funding to support these initiatives.

The OECD notes that businesses investing in digital transformation, technology, and R&D have outperformed their peers, particularly in export-focused industries. For Canterbury, this means encouraging stronger collaborations between businesses, government, and research institutions to create an ecosystem that enables growth and competitiveness.

Geopolitical and Economic Considerations

The session also addressed broader geopolitical and economic factors shaping the export landscape. The potential impacts of the US elections and ongoing tensions, such as the US-China trade dispute, were discussed as significant risks to global trade stability.

The OECD report also highlights slowing global demand and challenges in key markets, including Europe, where some exporters are experiencing delayed payments or extended terms from previously stable customers. For Canterbury businesses, remaining agile and informed about these dynamics will be critical to navigating uncertainties in the coming year.

Next Steps and Regional Commitment

As a follow-up to the session, Business Canterbury has outlined key initiatives to support exporters in 2025:

• Export Breakfasts: Held quarterly, these sessions provide up-to-date resources and insights for exporters. The next breakfast, hosted by Westpac on 19 March 2025, will include an economic update which will be followed by presentations from key government organisations. Get your tickets here.

• Global Trade Support: Business Canterbury has a Global Trade membership offering tailored support such as help entering new markets, leveraging free trade agreements, and meeting sustainability requirements. The membership also covers general business support. 

• Peer-to-Peer Learning: Encouraging knowledge sharing through case studies and structured cohorts focused on areas like marketing and compliance.

The session reinforced the importance of collaboration in building a resilient and future-focused export sector. By leveraging its strengths in agriculture, manufacturing, tourism, and innovation, Canterbury is well-positioned to drive regional and national growth.

With New Zealand’s economy stabilising and opportunities emerging from global sustainability trends, Canterbury businesses have an opportunity to lead the way.

Business Canterbury is committed to supporting our members with advocacy, resources, and meaningful connections to help businesses thrive in a dynamic economic environment. If you're looking to expand your horizons, our global trade membership offers the tools and opportunities you need to succeed on an international scale.

Click here to learn more and join today.