For local exporters and importers, the coming year presents a number of political events that warrant our close attention.
The global electoral calendar is packed with significant elections, influencing over 60% of the world's economic output and impacting more than half its population. These elections are not just political milestones; they are pivotal moments that could reshape the dynamics of international trade and economic policies, affecting our businesses directly or indirectly.
The Asian pivot: Taiwan and beyond
Starting with Taiwan, the recent election of Lai Ching-te as president, despite pressure from China, signals a continued stance on sovereignty that could have implications for trade relations in the region. For local businesses, this could mean shifts in the Asia-Pacific trade landscape, emphasising the need for adaptive strategies in our engagements with both Taiwan and China.
European elections: a fragmented picture
Europe's election calendar is dense, with several key nations going to the polls. Notably, the rise of right-wing parties across the continent, from the Netherlands to Austria, poses questions about the future of European integration. This is crucial for New Zealand, as Europe's unity impacts our trade agreements and access to these markets. The European Parliament elections are particularly significant, with potential policy shifts on migration and environmental reforms that could affect our export sectors, especially agriculture and renewable resources.
Russia and Turkey: economic ripples
Russia's upcoming election, with President Putin expected to extend his tenure, holds geopolitical weight. We will need to watch for any escalation in tensions or sanctions, which could disrupt global markets, particularly in energy and commodities. Similarly, Turkey's economic direction, amidst high inflation and currency volatility, will influence global investment flows and the stability of trade routes, impacting our import costs and export competitiveness.
India's electoral dynamics
India, a key trade partner, is poised for national elections with Prime Minister Narendra Modi likely to seek a third term. The political climate and economic policies post-election could affect aspects of our trade, especially in technology, dairy, and other key exports. India's stance on trade restrictions and fiscal policies will be areas to monitor closely for their potential to disrupt supply chains and trade agreements.
The Americas: uncertainty and opportunity
In the Americas, Mexico's elections and the potential for policy shifts under a new administration could influence North American trade dynamics. For New Zealand, this could mean changes in the competitive landscape, particularly in agricultural exports. The United States' presidential election, with the possibility of a Trump-Biden rematch, carries significant implications for global trade policies, U.S.-China relations, and international economic stability, all of which are vital for our trade-dependent economy.
Looking south: South Africa's crossroads
South Africa's election is a marker for political and economic stability in Africa. The outcome could affect our trade relations and investment prospects on the continent, particularly in terms of resource trade and development partnerships.
A closer Commonwealth connection: UK's political shifts
Lastly, the UK, amid Brexit's ongoing adjustments, heads towards another election that could further define its trade relationships. For New Zealand, the implications are direct, as shifts in UK policy may influence our trade agreements and export opportunities, especially with regards to agricultural products and services.
Adapting and thriving amidst global shifts
For local business owners, understanding these global political shifts is not just about staying informed but about strategically navigating the uncertainties and opportunities they present. Our reliance on global trade means that elections around the world can have a ripple effect on our operations, from supply chain disruptions to shifts in currency markets and trade policies.
As we move through 2024, staying agile, informed, and ready to adapt will be key. It's about leveraging our strengths in sustainable production, innovation, and international partnerships to not only weather the potential storms but to find new avenues for growth and collaboration in an evolving global landscape.
