US Imposes 10% Tariff on NZ Exports – What It Means for You

10% Tariff on New Zealand Exports

The recent decision by the United States to impose a 10% tariff on all New Zealand exports as announced by U.S. President Donald Trump has caught the attention of Kiwi exporters and policy makers alike. While the U.S. has used tariffs before, this is the first time New Zealand faces broad, across-the-board duties. Tariffs announced range from 10% to 49% on goods from multiple countries.

The Direct Impact on New Zealand's Economy is Limited — But Not Negligible

A 10% tariff sounds big, but its overall impact on New Zealand’s economy is expected to be modest. However, manufacturers and food and beverage exporters of niche, high-value products will feel the impact. Price sensitive goods could see reduced competitiveness, and firms may need to adjust pricing or seek alternative markets.

Potential Impacts on New Zealand's Market, Imports, and Exports

• Global Trade Dynamics: Tariffs may fuel global trade tensions, disrupting flows and affecting New Zealand’s export-driven economy
• Economic Growth slowdown: A trade war could slow global growth, reducing demand for NZ exports like dairy, meat, and wine
• Fluctuating Markets: Markets are already reacting. NZ’s financial sector may see more volatility, affecting investments and stability
• Opportunity: NZ could benefit if U.S. tariffs make competitors’ products more expensive—especially in markets like Canada.
• Diplomatic Relations: NZ must balance trade relationships with allies and partners hit by U.S. tariffs

The Bigger Risk: A Global Slowdown

The bigger concern isn’t just NZ-U.S. trade—it’s what this means for global trade rules. New Zealand is a small, highly open economy that has traditionally benefited from an environment of free trade and strong international rules. A shift toward protectionism, especially if other countries retaliate, will make the global trade environment less predictable and more costly. Trade wars weaken investment, slow demand, and shake business confidence.

A Changing World Order

Since the 1980s, New Zealand has thrived in a world of free trade and global supply chains. The rise of tariffs and trade barriers marks a shift toward protectionism, prioritising national interests over free trade. This shift — sometimes called a regime change — is unsettling. For businesses, it creates uncertainty around investment, hiring, and trade planning. If widespread, this hesitation can itself become a drag on global and domestic growth.

Resilience in Policy and Exchange Rates

NZ has buffers—our floating exchange rate and flexible policies can help absorb shock. The challenge? Navigating a more uncertain global trade landscape. While the 10% tariff will not derail New Zealand’s economy, it is a wake-up call. For exporters, adapting to this new normal may require diversification, deeper engagement with alternative markets, and an active watch on how the global trade landscape continues to evolve.

We will be watching closely for ideas, opportunities and challenges that may face our members and will keep you informed along the way.